Shahrivar or Mehr?
By Camelia Entekhabifard
These days in Iran, everyone is whispering about a possible war. They don't know the how, when or who (the US or Israel), but they are certain! On the phone or on public transport, Iranians are quietly telling each other: "It's going to be Shahrivar or Mehr [September or October].
" The public believe that Tehran, Natanz, Boushehr and Isfahan, the cities with nuclear sites, will be the main targets for an airstrike by the US or its Israeli friends. These rumours became stronger when the New York Times reported Israel's large-scale military manoeuvres in the Mediterranean, adding that officials in the Pentagon said Israel was getting ready for Iran. It was nearly a year ago that high-ranking officials such as Hashemi Rafsanjai and Mohammad Khatami expressed their fears about national security because of Ahmadinejad's foreign policies. Today, the threat of a possible attack on Iran's nuclear sites has become so serious that finally the Government is speaking out about it. They recently showcased the Shehab-3 missile, with a range of 1,200 miles, which means it could reach Tel Aviv. The United States and Israel condemned Iran for firing nine missiles; the next day, the Revolutionary Guards blasted off another batch. Last year, Iran said they have 600 missiles trained on Israel; they repeated this comment a few days ago. The tension between Tehran and Washington is increasing every day. Ironically, neither the US nor Iran really wants war. Mohamed Ali Jafari, a senior figure in the Revolutionary Gourd, recently warned that they would close the Straits of Hormuz, if Iran's nuclear sites were attacked. Another Revolutionary Guard commander claimed that they have ordered local people living in the border cities to dig 320,000 graves for foreign soldiers, who should dare to trespass on Iranian soil. As for the Iranian media, there seems to be two opinions coming out of the regime. There are people like Dr Ali Akbar Velayati, the Supreme Leader's adviser on international affairs, who wants Iran to negotiate the 5+1 offer. Others, including President Ahmadinejad himself, say that Iran's nuclear policy will not be negotiated. Surprisingly, Iran responded to the 5+1 offer last week and didn't reject it out of hand, unlike before. Meanwhile, Iran's chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili, will meet Javier Solana today in Geneva, to talk about Iran's last chance to improve its relationship with the West and avoid the possible war or harsher sanctions from the UN. The European Union has always asked Iran to stop enriching uranium as a pre-condition for returning to the negotiating table. But this time, it has dropped this demand. The State Department spokesman told reporters: "The only condition is that, six weeks before the introductory 5+1 talks, Iran must stop making any new centrifuges or increasing the amount of uranium it enriches. After the six weeks, if Iran agrees to temporarily stop the enrichment, the US will join in the talks and the Secretary of State will meet her Iranian counterpart." Manochehr Motaki, the Iranian Foreign Minister who was visiting New York last week for a meeting at the UN, told reporters, in answer to a question about an article in The Washington Post: "Iran has never received a request from the US to have an Interests Section in Iran; if we receive such a request, we will review it." In spite of all the tension and the possibility of a confrontation between Iran and the US or Israel, there is little chance that the wise men in the regime will prevent Ahmadinejad and the elite forces from steering the war machine. Iran can't stand a new round of sanctions - it can't tolerate the present ones. Two resolutions have been passed by the UN and there may be a third one on the way. The regime cannot survive. With inflation running at around 25 per cent and a skyrocketing cost of living, the Iranian Government can no longer justify its nuclear programme. Some time soon, Ayatollah Khameni may, for the sake of the regime, accept the 5+1 conditions for halting the enrichment of uranium. Iranians well remember 3rd July 1988, when an Iranian aircraft with 290 passengers was shot down by US missiles in the Persian Gulf.That horrific incident lead to the end of the eight-year Iran-Iraq War. At that critical moment Ayatollah Khomeini announced on national TV that he would drink the poison - i.e. accept the UN resolution for the sake of Islam and Iran. The Supreme Leader in Iran has the last word. Ayatollah Khameni is smarter than his President and we'll soon find out whether he's prepared to drink the poison or not. But this time, it's won't be for the sake of Islam or Iran, but for the regime! Entekhabifard is a journalist and the author of the book, Camelia: “Save Your Self by Telling the Truth”. She is a specialist in Afghan and Iranian affairs.
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